Progressive Prosecutors & Public Safety: A Data Report

All Cities - Large and Small are in the Crosshairs

Backed by George Soros-aligned political networks, a wave of reform-minded district attorneys took office in America’s largest cities beginning around 2016. Years later, what does the crime data — drawn from official police department records — actually show? A city-by-city analysis.

Between 2015 and 2022, a well-funded national effort reshaped American prosecution. George Soros — the billionaire philanthropist and political donor — along with affiliated political action committees, spent an estimated $50 million or more backing candidates for district attorney who shared a “progressive” or “social justice” philosophy of criminal justice. That philosophy generally favored reduced incarceration, eliminating or limiting cash bail, declining prosecution of low-level offenses, and addressing systemic inequities in criminal justice outcomes.

The prosecutors who emerged from this movement now represent communities totaling more than 70 million Americans, according to estimates by the Law Enforcement Legal Defense Fund (LELDF). They took office in cities including Philadelphia, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco, and St. Louis — among others.

This report examines the homicide data in six of those cities before, during, and after each prosecutor’s tenure. All figures are drawn from official police department statistics, FBI Uniform Crime Reports, and California Department of Justice data. Where data has been independently confirmed by multiple sources, that is noted. Where uncertainty exists, it is disclosed.

This report does not conclude that prosecutorial philosophy alone drove crime trends. Crime is shaped by poverty, gun availability, housing instability, policing levels, and dozens of other variables. The pandemic of 2020–2021 caused historic crime spikes in cities across the country — including cities with traditional, more punitive prosecutors. Any honest assessment must account for that context.

What this report does is present the official numbers, in full, alongside each prosecutor’s record — and let readers evaluate the evidence.

BACKGROUND: THE SOROS FUNDING NETWORK

The funding mechanisms behind the progressive prosecutor movement are well-documented in public campaign finance records. Soros primarily operated through state-level PACs: the California Justice & Public Safety PAC, the Illinois Safety & Justice PAC, and Civic Participation Action Fund, among others. The Open Society Foundations also funded Fair and Just Prosecution, a nonprofit that provided training and networking for reform prosecutors.

Documented funding amounts from public filings include:

• Larry Krasner (Philadelphia, 2017): approximately $1.7 million, representing roughly 90% of his primary campaign funds (Heritage Foundation)

• George Gascón (Los Angeles, 2020): approximately $4.7 million via the California Justice & Public Safety PAC

• Aramis Ayala (Florida, 2016): approximately $1.3 million

• Pamela Price (Alameda County, California, 2022): approximately $130,000

The Law Enforcement Legal Defense Fund (LELDF) has identified as many as 75 such prosecutors nationwide since 2022. The network’s management has passed partly to Alex Soros, who now runs Democracy PAC.

Note: Attributing any individual election result solely to PAC funding is difficult. Many candidates also received support from local progressive coalitions, labor unions, and national criminal justice reform organizations. The Soros-affiliated funding was significant in some races and less determinative in others.

BALTIMORE | Marilyn Mosby | January 2015 – January 2023

Marilyn Mosby was elected State’s Attorney in 2014, taking office in January 2015. She gained national attention by charging six Baltimore Police officers in the 2015 death of Freddie Gray (all charges were dropped or defendants acquitted). She received support from Soros-aligned networks and participated in programs funded by Open Society Foundations. She lost her 2022 Democratic primary to Ivan Bates, who took office in January 2023.

OFFICIAL HOMICIDE DATA (Baltimore Police Department — validated):

2011: 196 | 2012: 217 | 2013: 233 | 2014: 211

Pre-Mosby four-year average (2011–2014): 214 homicides/year

2015: 344 | 2016: 318 | 2017: 343 | 2018: 309 | 2019: 348 | 2020: 335 | 2021: 337 | 2022: 334

Mosby-era eight-year average (2015–2022): 334 homicides/year — 56% above the pre-Mosby average

Ivan Bates era:

2023: 261 — largest single-year decline in BPD history

2024: 201 — a further 23% decline

Source: BPD 2024 Year-End Crime Report (January 1, 2025)

The 2024 total of 201 represents a 40% reduction from the Mosby-era average.

Context: The 2015 spike is partially attributed to the Freddie Gray unrest and documented police disengagement — not prosecutorial policy alone. However, the elevation persisted throughout Mosby’s full tenure (2016–2022 never dropped below 309), preceding pandemic-era disruption. Mosby was convicted of federal mortgage fraud and perjury in 2024.

LOS ANGELES | George Gascón | December 2020 – December 2024

George Gascón, the former San Francisco DA, won the Los Angeles DA race in November 2020 with approximately $4.7 million from the California Justice & Public Safety PAC (Soros-funded). He took office in December 2020 and immediately issued Special Directives barring prosecutors from seeking sentence enhancements, eliminating cash bail requests, and prohibiting prosecution of juveniles as adults even in serious violent felony cases.

OFFICIAL HOMICIDE DATA (LAPD / California Department of Justice — validated):

2015: 282 | 2016: 294 | 2017: 294 | 2018: 302 | 2019: 258 (City of Los Angeles)

Pre-Gascón five-year average (2015–2019): 286 homicides/year

2020: 351 | 2021: 397 | 2022: 382 | 2023: 327 | 2024: 289

Peak of 397 in 2021 was the highest since 2007, approximately 54% above 2019.

Los Angeles County figures: county homicides reached 841 in 2021 (California DOJ).

Gascón lost his November 2024 reelection bid to Nathan Hochman by approximately 23 percentage points — one of the largest margins in any major DA race in recent years.

Context: Line prosecutors within the DA’s office filed legal challenges to Gascón’s directives — an unprecedented action. Victims’ families organized multiple recall efforts that fell short of qualifying for the ballot. The 2024 decline aligns with the broader national trend. Hochman, Gascón’s successor, has reversed most of the special directives.

CHICAGO | Kim Foxx | December 2016 – December 2024

Kim Foxx was elected Cook County State’s Attorney in 2016 with backing from the Illinois Safety & Justice PAC (Soros-affiliated). She took office in December 2016. Her tenure became nationally controversial following the handling of the Jussie Smollett case, in which charges were initially dropped by her office. A special prosecutor later obtained a conviction.

OFFICIAL HOMICIDE DATA (Chicago Police Department — validated):

2013: 415 | 2014: 390 | 2015: 478

Pre-Foxx baseline average (2013–2015): 428 homicides/year

2016: 762 (Foxx took office mid-December; spike largely attributed to preceding conditions)

2017: 650 | 2018: 561 | 2019: 492 | 2020: 769 | 2021: 780 (peak — highest in Chicago in decades)

2022: 697 | 2023: 618 | 2024: 523

Foxx’s term ended December 2024; she was succeeded by Eileen O’Neill Burke.

Key policy: Foxx raised the felony retail theft threshold from $300 to $1,000 — widely blamed for a surge in organized retail crime.

By 2025, Chicago homicides had declined approximately 47.7% from the 2021 peak.

Context: Chicago’s elevated homicide counts reflected complex socioeconomic and gang factors pre-dating Foxx. The 2020–2021 peaks align with national pandemic-era trends. Chicago’s post-Foxx recovery has been notable.

SAN FRANCISCO | Chesa Boudin | January 2020 – June 2022

Chesa Boudin took office in January 2020 on an explicitly reform platform: no prosecution of quality-of-life offenses, no cash bail, reduced prosecution of serious offenses. After 29 months in office, he was recalled in June 2022 — a bipartisan coalition voted 55% to remove him.

OFFICIAL HOMICIDE DATA (SFPD CompStat — validated):

2016: 56 | 2017: 56 | 2018: 55 | 2019: 52

2020: 48 | 2021: 56 | 2022: 56

2023: 52 | 2024: 35 | 2025: 28 (lowest since 1954, per SFPD)

Note: San Francisco’s homicide numbers are small enough that year-to-year changes are statistically noisy. Prosecution data tells a clearer story.

PROSECUTION-SPECIFIC DATA (peer-reviewed):

Source: Jordan G. Taqi-Eddin, “Impact Analysis of the Chesa Boudin Administration on Prosecution Outcomes in San Francisco,” arXiv (2024):

• Monthly prosecutions fell 36% under Boudin vs. pre-Boudin baseline (statistically significant, p<0.01)

• Monthly convictions fell 21% (statistically significant)

• Monthly successful diversions increased 58%

Context: San Francisco became nationally associated with property crime and retail theft under Boudin. Anti-Asian hate crimes spiked. Interim DA Brooke Jenkins reversed Boudin’s policies following the recall. 2025’s total of 28 homicides was the city’s lowest count since 1954.

ST. LOUIS | Kimberly Gardner | January 2017 – May 2023

Kimberly Gardner was elected Circuit Attorney in 2016 with Soros-aligned backing, taking office in January 2017 as Missouri’s first Black circuit attorney. She pursued a progressive agenda and became embroiled in repeated controversies involving case backlogs, staff departures, and friction with police.

OFFICIAL HOMICIDE DATA (St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department — validated):

2013: 120 | 2014: 159 | 2015: 188 | 2016: 188

Pre-Gardner four-year average (2013–2016): 164 homicides/year

St. Louis held the highest homicide rate per capita among U.S. cities of 250,000+ for most years 2014–2020.

2017: 205 | 2018: 186 | 2019: 194 | 2020: 263 (highest on SLMPD record going back to 1990)

2021: 203 | 2022: 200

May 2023: Gardner resigned, leaving a backlog of approximately 6,700 unreviewed cases, including 257 pending homicide cases.

Post-Gardner:

2023: 160 | 2024: 151

Source: SLMPD 2024 Homicide Analysis (January 2026)

Context: An investigation by APM Reports and The Marshall Project documented that nearly 60% of homicides during Gardner’s era went unsolved, with Black victims’ cases cleared at dramatically lower rates than others.

THE ELECTORAL RECORD (2022–2024)

The 2022–2024 election cycle served as a de facto referendum on progressive prosecution:

• San Francisco (June 2022): Chesa Boudin recalled, 55% to 45%, by a bipartisan coalition

• Baltimore (July 2022): Marilyn Mosby lost Democratic primary to Ivan Bates

• Alameda County, CA (November 2024): Pamela Price recalled after 18 months in office

• Los Angeles (November 2024): George Gascón lost reelection by approximately 23 percentage points

• California statewide (November 2024): Voters passed Proposition 36 — stiffening penalties for drug offenses and theft — by a wide margin

According to the Law Enforcement Legal Defense Fund, of the 25 Soros-linked DAs on the ballot in 2024, 12 were defeated or recalled. Of the approximately 75 such prosecutors identified since 2022, 50 have left office or been replaced.

Counterpoint: Several Soros-backed prosecutors won reelection or faced no recall. Larry Krasner survived an impeachment attempt and won a second term. Defenders argue the electoral losses reflect anti-incumbent sentiment and well-financed opposition campaigns — not a genuine policy repudiation.

WHAT SUPPORTERS SAY

The strongest version of the pro-reform argument:

Crime is multifactorial. The pandemic, a national surge in gun purchases, housing displacement, and post-Floyd social unrest drove homicide increases beginning in 2020 — in cities with both progressive and traditional prosecutors. San Diego County (no Soros-backed DA) saw a 34% homicide jump from 2018 to 2020. Orange County saw a similar spike.

Professor John Pfaff of Fordham Law School argues that deterrence research shows fear of being caught — not fear of a long sentence — is the primary driver of criminal behavior. Lengthening sentences has minimal deterrent effect, while improving clearance rates produces more measurable results.

George Gascón’s argument: “The counties with the harshest penalties and the most prosecutions also saw crime rise.”

The peer-reviewed criminological literature on prosecution’s specific impact on crime rates is genuinely mixed. Attribution is difficult when so many variables move simultaneously.

DATA NOTES AND METHODOLOGY

All homicide figures are from official law enforcement sources:

• Philadelphia: PPD Crime Map and Statistics (ppd.phila.gov)

• Baltimore: BPD Open Data and 2024 Year-End Crime Report

• Los Angeles: LAPD Annual Crime Report; California DOJ Open Justice

• Chicago: CPD Annual Statistical Reports; City of Chicago Data Portal

• San Francisco: SFPD CompStat reports (sfpd.org)

• St. Louis: SLMPD Annual Homicide Analysis, including 2024 report (January 2026)

Background Information

DATA TABLE 1: Homicide Trends — Pre, During, and Post Prosecutor Tenure

(All figures from official police department annual data)

City | Prosecutor | In Office | Pre-Avg (Annual) | Peak During Tenure | 2024 Count | Outcome

Philadelphia | Larry Krasner | Jan 2018–present | 274/yr (2013–17) | 562 (2021) | 269 | Survived impeachment; still in office

Baltimore | Marilyn Mosby | Jan 2015–Jan 2023 | 214/yr (2011–14) | 348 (2019) | 201 | Lost primary July 2022

Los Angeles | George Gascón | Dec 2020–Dec 2024 | 286/yr (2015–19) | 397 (2021) | 289 | Lost reelection by 23 pts, Nov 2024

Chicago | Kim Foxx | Dec 2016–Dec 2024 | 428/yr (2013–15) | 780 (2021) | 523 | Term ended Dec 2024

San Francisco | Chesa Boudin | Jan 2020–Jun 2022 | 52/yr (2016–19) | 56 (2021) | 35 | Recalled 55%–45%, June 2022

St. Louis | Kimberly Gardner | Jan 2017–May 2023 | 164/yr (2013–16) | 263 (2020) | 151 | Resigned May 2023

DATA TABLE 2: Documented Soros-Network Campaign Contributions

(Source: California/Illinois campaign finance filings; Heritage Foundation; LELDF; AP)

City/Race | Prosecutor | Documented Amount | Primary Source

Philadelphia 2017 | Larry Krasner | ~$1.7 million | Heritage Foundation; campaign filings

Los Angeles 2020 | George Gascón | ~$4.7 million | CA Justice & Public Safety PAC filings

Florida 2016 | Aramis Ayala | ~$1.3 million | FL campaign finance records; AP

Alameda County 2022 | Pamela Price | ~$130,000 | AP reporting

Chicago 2016 | Kim Foxx | Substantial (IL Safety & Justice PAC) | IL campaign finance filings

Network-wide total (est.) | Multiple | $50+ million (2014–2024) | LELDF (January 2024)

SOURCES

1. Philadelphia Police Department — Crime Map and Statistics (ppd.phila.gov)

2. Pew Charitable Trusts — “Philadelphia’s 2024 Homicides at a 10-Year Low” (2025)

3. Baltimore Police Department — 2024 Year-End Crime Report (January 1, 2025)

4. LAPD — 2024 End of Year Crime Statistics

5. California Department of Justice — Open Justice Crime Data Portal

6. Los Angeles County Almanac — Reported Crime Numbers & Crime Rates 1985–2025

7. Chicago Police Department — Annual Statistical Reports

8. City of Chicago Data Portal — Homicide Dataset (2001–present)

9. San Francisco Police Department — CompStat Reports (sfpd.org)

10. Jordan G. Taqi-Eddin — “Impact Analysis of the Chesa Boudin Administration on Prosecution Outcomes in San Francisco,” arXiv (2024)

11. St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department — 2024 Homicide Analysis (January 2026)

12. APM Reports / The Marshall Project — “Unsolved” investigation, St. Louis (2023–2024)

13. Law Enforcement Legal Defense Fund (LELDF) — “Follow the Money: Soros Prosecutor Funding” (2024)

14. Heritage Foundation — Soros Prosecutor Research (2021–2024)

15. Washington Free Beacon — Baltimore crime coverage (2024–2025)

16. Associated Press — Soros DA contributions, California (various dates)

17. California Proposition 36 results — California Secretary of State, November 2024

18. Chicago Public Safety DataHub — Homicide trend reporting (2025–2026)